Gate.io Research: Bitcoin Periodic Correlation Analysis

TL;DR1.BlackRockandCoinbase’sPartnershipstrengthensapositiveinstitutionalattitude2.USmacrorecoverybutinflationispushingFedtobemoreaggressiveonraisinginterestrates3.BitcoinreturnisgrowingclosertoUSequitymarkets4.BitcoinreturnisstrictlynegativelycorrelatedwithUSinterestrates5.BitcoinreturnissensitivetoM0changesratherthanM1orM2intheUS1.ResearchBackground

1.1InstitutionalPreference

BlackRockInc.(NYSE:BLK)announceditspartnershipwithCoinbaseGlobalInc.(NASDAQ:COIN)onAugust4,2022,sendingCoinbasesharesrocketingthatday.Thispartnershipisastrongstimulusforthenegativecryptomarketsentiment,hammeredbyfallingpricesandgovernmentinvestigations.As,BlackRock,thelargestassetmanager,ismakingiteasierforinstitutionalinvestorstomanageandtradeBitcoin.TheannouncementfueledCoinbasesharestorocketforafewdaysandwaseventuallycalmedbyCoinbase'sQ2earnings.Nevertheless,thismoveisconsideredaleapinthecryptomarketasinstitutionalinvestorsarereachingin.'Thepactisaseismicshiftinthecryptoindustry.'saidLeahWald,CEOofValkyrieInvestments.TopBlackRockclientswillgainaccesstoBitcointhroughitsAladdininvestmentmanagementsystem,makingiteasiertomanagetheirexposurealongwiththeirstocksandbonds.Andthefocus'willinitiallybeonBitcoin',BlackRockmentioned.BlackRockisthelargestassetmanagerintheworld,with8.5trillionUSDundermanagementbyJune2022andthereareapproximately21trillionUSDworthoffinancialassetsmanagedonAladdin.AccordingtoCreditSuisse,thetotalwealthoftheworldby2020is418trillionUSD,andthetotalassetonAladdincountsfor5%ofit.1.2MacroRecovery

Circle：已將Silvergate持有的一部分USDC儲備轉移到其他銀行合作伙伴:金色財經報道，穩定幣發行商 Circle 官網發文稱，由于Silvergate Bank持續存在不確定性，今天 Circle 已將 Silvergate 持有的一小部分 USDC 儲備存款轉移到我們的其他銀行合作伙伴。所有 USDC 儲備均由幾家資本充足的美國銀行和 Circle Reserve Fund 持有，該基金目前約占 USDC 儲備的 80%。這些儲備金的總和現在由德勤每月審查和證明。

另外，Circle 的客戶服務、運營、風險管理和財務團隊已經將替代方案通知了其余依賴 Silvergate 的客戶。盡管 Silvergate 表示其與存款相關的服務不受影響，但 Circle 正在積極轉移剩余 Silvergate 相關服務。[2023/3/4 12:42:05]

TheUSeconomyadded528,000jobsinJuly,beatingestimatesby100%,andJunejobdataisupwardlyrevisedto398,000.ThebiggestpushinJulywasleisureandhospitality,particularlyinfoodserviceanddrinking.Andtheunemploymentratefellto3.5%whichisathistoricallowtyingthepre-pandemiclevel.Thisisastrongshowingofeconomicrecovery.However,theskyrocketinginflationisstillahugehurdlefortheFederalReservetocross.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.2.MethodofResearch&Data

Bitcoinmarketismoreofaglobalmarketratherthanaregionalone.Butinthisresearch,wearefocusingontheUSeconomyasastartingpointandwouldextendtoothereconomiesinthefuture.ThisresearchwilladoptmonthlydatafromJan.2015toJun.2022.WearepickingBitcoinmonthlyreturnsasitisabetterindicatorandeasiertocomparetoothervariables,especiallymacroeconomicvariablesinthisresearch.Correlationsbetweenallthevariableswillbecalculatedanddifferenttimeframeswillbeselectedtocalculatethecorrelationindifferenttimeframes,inanattempttoseechangesindifferentmarketconditions.ThefollowingUSmacroeconomicdataareselected:ItisimportanttostatethatanycorrelationfoundinthisresearchdoesNOTindicatecausation.Thecorrelationonlysuggeststhetendencyoftwovariablestomovetogether,andhowdeepthattendencyis.Causationrelationscanonlybeinferredthroughfurtherstudies.AlldatausedinthisresearchisfromtheSt.LouisFREDdatabase.3.SimpleCorrelationAnalysis

Kongregate和ImmutableX推出4000萬美元的鏈游開發基金:金色財經報道，網絡游戲平臺Kongregate和區塊鏈游戲開發商Immutable X宣布成立了一項 4000 萬美元的基金，其中包括一個 IMX 代幣池，將作為贈款授予Kongregate.com上的區塊鏈游戲集成。Kongregate將于今年晚些時候重新啟動，成為來自成熟和獨立開發者以及新一代游戲玩家的區塊鏈游戲的首選目的地。?（prnewswire）[2022/5/26 3:42:00]

3.1Methodology

Simplecorrelationanalysiswoulduseallthedatatocalculateonecorrelationcoefficientbetweenanytwovariables.Thisanalysisistogiveamacroviewoftherelationbetweenallthevariablesandservesasabenchmarkforthefollowinganalysis.3.2Correlations&Analysis

ThechartaboveshowsthesimplecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.Therearethreeinterestingfactswefound:1.Althoughthecorrelationcoefficientsarelowingeneral,withahighof0.27andalowof-0.23,thecoefficientsarehigherincertainmarketreturnscategories.2.ThecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandinflationforallurbanconsumersisnear0,andthecorrelationwithinflationinfoodissignificantlyhigherat-0.23.ThisisagoodindicationthattheUSmoneysupplycausedinflation,andtheoversupplycoupledwithCovidencouragedalargenumberofindividualindicatorstopurchaseBTCduringtheCovidWFHperiod.3.Thecorrelationintheinterestratecategoryisallnegative,suggestingtheriskynatureofBitcoinreturns.ThiscouldbecausedbystronginterestmovesbytheFederalReservetocontrolinflation.4.CommoditymarketdoesnothaveanobviousrelationwithBitcoinreturns.4.AnnualCorrelationAnalysis

4.1Methodology

AnnualcorrelationanalysiswoulddivideeachvariableintodifferentnatureyearsandcalculatethecorrelationwithineachyeartofindaprogressionofrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.ThechangesincorrelationcoefficientswouldoffergoodinsightsintohowBitcoinreturnsprogressovertheyears.Wewouldalsocomparetheannualcorrelationwiththesimplecorrelationfromtheprevioussection.Andsincewearestillintheyear2022,wefurtherexaminedtheresultswithandwithoutdatafrom2022attheendofthesection.4.2Correlations&Analysis

Gate.io杠桿ETF行情：DOT5L紅榜第一 24H交易量近2000萬美金:據Gate.io芝麻開門行情顯示，DOT杠桿ETF產品近日看漲情緒高漲，DOT5L躋身Gate.io杠桿ETF今日紅榜第一，截至今日10:30：DOT5L 24H最高漲幅188.24%，24H最高報價6.8152美金，24H成交量近2000萬美金；DOT3L 24H最高漲幅84.02%，24H最高報價5.7681美金，24H成交量162萬美金。

近期行情波動較大，請注意控制風險。[2021/1/17 16:22:23]

ThefigureaboveshowsthecorrelationevolutionbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexreturns.Asthefigureshows,thetrendvariesovertheyearsandisextremelyunstable.However,thecorrelationsareveryclosetoeachotheruntil2022.Thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdatain2022orthesignificantbearmarketorabadmacroeconomicenvironment.Whenwetakeacloselookatthisgraph,theupwardtrendisveryclear,especiallybefore2022.ThereisagrowingtiebetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexes.Thereisanothercharacteristicofthisgraphwhencomparedtotheothers,isthatthelinesareverytighttogether.Thisiscausedbythehighcorrelationbetweenmarketindexes,around80%oftheequitymarketmovestogether.Thefigureaboveshowstheannualcorrelationbetweeninflationsandlabormarketstatistics.Somecleartrendscanbeobserved:1.ThecorrelationbetweeninflationandBitcoinreturnsisdroppingovertheyears,whiletheinflationinfoodandBitcoinreturnsareslowlygrowingties.ThismaysuggestthatBitcoinisgrowingawayfromitsdigitalgolddefinitionandbecomingmoreofariskyasset.2.ThecorrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandlabormarketstatisticsareallrisingfrom2015to2021anddroppingsharplyin2022,especiallythecorrelationwiththeunemploymentrateofpeoplewithbachelor'sorhigherdegreesandagesover25.ThisfigureshowsthecorrelationtrendbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmoneysupply.Itisclearthatthecorrelationlevelsarerisingthrough2015and2021.Thecorrelationpeakedin2021andsoonturneddownin2022.Thedownturnin2022,couldbejustanadjustmentofanupwardtrend,likemanybefore.Oritissimplyduetothelackofdatain2022.ThistrendalsoshowsthatBitcoin'sbehaviorresemblesthatofariskyasset,withapositivecorrelationtomoneysupplies.Figure5showsthecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsanddifferentinterestratelevels.SimilartoFigure2,thelinesareverytightandtrendinginthesamedownwarddirection.ThedownwardtrendofthefigureisveryclearandthisisinlinewithwhatwasfoundinpreviousfiguresthatBitcoinisbehavinglikeariskyassetratherthanarisklessone.Asimpleeconomicslessonhere.Whenthereistoomuchmoneyintheeconomy,theFederalReservewouldincreasetheinterestratetoreduceliquidity.Lessmoneyintheeconomywouldcauseriskyassets,likeequities,totank.Therefore,thecorrelationbetweentheequitymarketandinterestratelevelisnegative.WhenBitcoinisnegativelycorrelatedwithinterestratesandpositivelycorrelatedwiththeequitymarket,wecouldinferthatBitcoinisactinglikeariskyasset.4.3AnnualCorrelationSummary

Gate.io發布主流交易所理財產品對比公告:據官網公告，Gate.io近日就各大主流交易所理財產品進行調研，發現Gate.io的理財產品在同類產品中都占據一定優勢。主要為：1、現有活期理財產品年化收益率最優；2、持倉理財產品平均年化收益率最優；3、理財借出年化收益及手續費均最優；4、法幣借出無需手續費，到期100%收回本金；5、獨有定投理財功能，時機設置靈活、支持資金隨時贖回。詳情見原文鏈接。[2020/6/15]

Theannualcorrelationcoefficientssummaryisasfollows:Asthetableabovesummarizes,thereareverycleartrendsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmostofthevariables.However,allthetrendsshiftedin2022.Asmentioned,thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdata,sincethereareonly6monthsofdatainthesample.OrthestrongBearmarketistoblamefortheshift.Ingeneral,BitcoinisbehavingclosetoariskyassetwithagrowingcorrelationwiththeUSequitymarket.5.Bull&BearCorrelationAnalysis

5.1Methodology

Inthismethod,wewouldtrytocutthedatabybullandbearmarketconditions,andcalculatethecorrelationbetweentheBitcoinreturnsandothervariablesineachmarketcondition.Inthismethod,wewouldliketoexploretheinteractionsindifferentmarketconditions.SincethedefinitionofBullorBearmarketconditionisnotstrictlydefined,thedivisionofdataissubjectivetoourdefinitionsandtheconclusionissubjecttopersonalview.Ourdefinitionisasfollows:Bullmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralpositiveandrising.Bearmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralnegativeanddecreasing.Figure6showsthemonthlyreturnsofBitcoinforthepastfewyears,andwewilldividetheBullandBearmarketasfollows:5.2CorrelationsandAnalysis

Accordingtoourbullandbearmarketdivision,thecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmarketindexesishigherinbullmarketsandlowerinbearmarkets.ThisfindingsuggeststhatBitcoinreturnsaremoreinsyncwithstockmarketreturnsduringbullrunsandlessinpaceduringbearmarkets.TheCorrelationbetweenmoneysupplyandBitcoinreturnsisnotuniform,suggestingthemoneybaseismorecloselyrelatedtoBitcoinreturnsthanM1andM2duringdifferentmarketconditions.Figure9showstheevolutionofBitcoinasanasset.Duringthefirstbullmarket,thepositivecorrelationsuggestsBitcoinismorelikearisklessasset.However,asBitcoinevolvesoverthemarketcondition,itisgainingtheattributeofariskyasset,ratherthanarisklessone.Aswementionedatthebeginningofthissection,thedefinitionofbullandbearmarketsisnotstrict.Wemadeourdefinitionsandbasedouranalysisonthem.Theresultsinthissectionarenottobeinferredasinvestmentsuggestions.6.BTCReturnsVolatilityComparisonAnalysis

Gate.io投票上幣項目KLAY投票將于今天12:00截止:據官方消息，Gate.io首次單個投票上幣時間為2020年5月11日中午12:00-2020年5月12日中午12:00，投票幣種為Klaytn（KLAY），投票截止時間為今天12:00。詳情請見原文鏈接。[2020/5/12]

6.1Methodology

Inthepreviousanalysis,wehaveestablishedthatBitcoinreturnsaregrowingmorepositivelycorrelatedwithmajorUSequitymarketindexes.Inthissection,wewillexplorethevolatilityofBitcoincomparedtotheUSequitymarketindexes.Wewillcalculatethestandarddeviationtoquantifyvolatilityforeachyear.Thehigherthestandarddeviationis,thegreaterthevolatilityis.6.2Volatility

Thefigureaboveshowsthevolatilitylevelsovertheyears.WecanclearlyseethatBitcoinvolatilitiesaresignificantlyhigherthanthatoftheequitymarkets.ThisisenoughtosaythatBitcoinisariskyassetwithhighvolatility.Anotherinterestingdiscoveryisthatequitymarketreturnsvolatilityisraisingfrom2017to2020,butBitcoinreturnsvolatilityisdropping.Combinedwiththegrowingcorrelation,thisisshowingsomelevelofconvergencebetweentheBitcoinmarketandthemajorUSequitymarket.7.Conclusion

Bitcoinandblockchaintechnology,withtheirgrowingimpactandtechnicalcapability,aregainingmoreandmoreattentionaroundtheworld,andBlackRockisjustthelatestofmany.Thisstudy,asmentionedinthebeginning,isasimplerecapofhowBitcoinhasevolvedintermsofrelationswiththemarketandeconomicvariablesovertheyears.Thereweremanyupsanddowns,andsowillthefuture.Whathasnotchangedisourfaithinthistechnologyanditsbrightfuture.Therearesomesimpleconclusionsthatwecandrawfromthisstudy:1.Bitcoinisgrowingmorecloselytoanequity-likeriskyassetwithahighpositivecorrelationwiththeequitymarketsandanegativecorrelationwithinterestrates.2.BitcoinreturnsaremoresensitivetomonetarybasechangesratherthanM1orM2.3.Bitcoinreturnsarenegativelycorrelatedtoinflationbutpositivelycorrelatedtoinflationinfood.4.Bitcoinreturnsaremorecloselyrelatedtoequitymarketsduringbullruns.5.BitcoinreturnsvolatilityissignificantlyhigherthanthatofthemajorUSequitymarketswhichmeansBitcoinisfarriskier.Disclaimer

*Thisarticlerepresentsonlytheviewsoftheobserversanddoesnotconstituteanyinvestmentsuggestions.*Gate.ioreservesallrightstothisarticle.RepostingofthearticlewillbepermittedprovidedGate.ioisreferenced.Inallothercases,legalactionwillbetakenduetocopyrightinfringement.GatewaytoCryptoTradeover1,400cryptocurrenciessafely,quicklyandeasilyonGate.ioSignuptoenterthecryptogatewayandget40%commissionfromreferralsDownloadiOS/AndroidApprightnow.Reachouttous!Twitter:https://twitter.com/gate_ioTelegram:https://t.me/gate_ioInstagram：https://www.instagram.com/gateioglobalMedium：https://medium.com/@gateioPodcast:https://gateio.buzzsprout.com/?ch=buzzsGate.ioTeamOctober20

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